Johnny,
And if I follow my plan about not caring about qualy and work on the things I need to, there won't be anyone behind me faster.
Ah grasshopper, you assume your racing fate is dictated by only your own actions. Often leaders are taken out in the qualifying races or fast guys have mechanicals etc. There can be fast people starting from the back due to reasons that have nothing to do with you. To twist a phrase, "No plan survives contact with turn one." One other thing about lap times. Often the leaders will be running near quali times and running in a train til near the end of the race (though not always, especially not if they think yellow or red flags will be coming out early) whereas mid/back packers tend to want to race each other darn near every corner and tend not to be able to run nearly as close as their quali pace. It makes it more likely to get lapped in a race that what quali lap differentials would indicate.
That being said, sounds like you have the right attitude going into the event. Hope you have a great time!