Looks to me like its 100 percent Locke's fault. According to a race monitor, both Paul and Mustafa were a full two seconds a lap faster than Locke in qualifying. You can see that Locke is clearly slower then them and there is a huge hole between Locke and Paul. Mustafa got almost a full car length ahead of Paul when the contact was made, so I disagree that they were "three wide" going into the bus stop. I'm not suggesting that this wreck was Paul's fault, but in hindsight, he should have tucked in behind Mustafa at this point and he and Mustafa would have easily passed Locke. But that's Monday morning quarterback and when you are racing, it's not so easy to always make good decisions.
In any event, Locke was too aggressive in pushing Mustafa to the outside and there was no need for it. As i said, Mustaf and Paul were a full two seconds a lap faster then Locke in the qualifying race and instead of acknowledging that and giving them room, he made an overly aggressive move to try and hold a position that he was going to eventually lose anyway. It was the first lap! Get out of the way of guys that are two seconds a lap faster then you.
If I am two seconds a lap slower then somebody, I want to run behind them in the hope of learning why they are two seconds a lap faster. Locke should have stayed where he was and let them by him.
While I appreciate everyone is entitled to their perspective, I disagree that I should have tucked in behind or did not make a "good decision" here. We were 3 wide on the back straight still accelerating, nowhere near the bus stop when contact occurred. I held my line and gave ample room for others. If everyone did that you can go 4 wide here. If the passing car had cleared or we were approaching the braking zone then I'd be tucking in, but not here. IMO this is over aggressive lap 1 driving. Yes, I'm aware even though I suffered the most damage, it's still an opinion.