66 replies to this topic

[Mitch Reading]

Safe to say that all racing thru March, and likely further is cancelled.

Curious as to the impact of such cancellations, who bears the brunt? ....does a sanctioning body get their rental fees back? Do tracks have biz interruption insurance? In my world of commercial real estate, the term ‘force majeure’ and the interpretation of such, will have unprecedented impact.

I know there are folks on here that have their hands in planning for various regions and have some good insight. What say you?

Think we will be racing in May?

[Cnj]

Safe to say that all racing thru March, and likely further is cancelled.

Curious as to the impact of such cancellations, who bears the brunt? ....does a sanctioning body get their rental fees back? Do tracks have biz interruption insurance? In my world of commercial real estate, the term ‘force majeure’ and the interpretation of such, will have unprecedented impact.

I know there are folks on here that have their hands in planning for various regions and have some good insight. What say you?

Think we will be racing in May?

I would guess less than 10% chance we will be racing in May.  Maybe late June.  But I suspect the season is really dead till the fall.

I’m involved in a group that has cancelled two upcoming events at 2 different tracks.  Most/all tracks request contract signing before blocking the event dates.  All of the tracks that I know of also require a deposit which is only refundable if the track cancels due to forces outside of their control.  As explained to me by one of the lawyers we work with, Force majeure in these contracts are one sided and protect the track.  

 

On a practical level it’s a symbiotic relationship and so these things are worked out.  On the two events I’m involved in, both tracks simply want to reschedule and will keep the deposit and apply it against a future event.  So unless the club/promoter is cash poor, it all works out.

 

Make no mistake, this crisis is going to devastate the supply chain for racing.  If any have the financial wherewithal, this is a good time to update your car or build a new one (my path) and support the cottage industry that supports club racing.  

[Jim Drago]

I would guess less than 10% chance we will be racing in May.  Maybe late June.  But I suspect the season is really dead till the fall.

I’m involved in a group that has cancelled two upcoming events at 2 different tracks.  Most/all tracks request contract signing before blocking the event dates.  All of the tracks that I know of also require a deposit which is only refundable if the track cancels due to forces outside of their control.  As explained to me by one of the lawyers we work with, Force majeure in these contracts are one sided and protect the track.  

 

On a practical level it’s a symbiotic relationship and so these things are worked out.  On the two events I’m involved in, both tracks simply want to reschedule and will keep the deposit and apply it against a future event.  So unless the club/promoter is cash poor, it all works out.

 

Make no mistake, this crisis is going to devastate the supply chain for racing.  If any have the financial wherewithal, this is a good time to update your car or build a new one (my path) and support the cottage industry that supports club racing.  

 

 

Unfortunately I think I agree with you.. I am hoping we make the June Sprints at this point. Anything before that is a bonus

[38bfast]

the small shops may be able to stay open but I am worried about the supply chain to deliver parts. 

[Tom Hampton]

At the moment the USA is experiencing a ~10 fold increase in total cases every 8 days (and most every other statistic).  Until that flattens out and goes the other way....no one is doing anything.   We haven't really gone into much of a lockdown mode in many places, yet.  My office is only now going to a "voluntary" work from home plan---with a 25% participation rate.  I'm not much of an alarmist, but we in the USA have a tendancy to think we can control things and "it won't happen to me".  This doesn't work that way. 

 

I think June will be "lucky". 

 

My cardiac rehab place just called to cancel my appointments---because they closed until further notice.  They are hoping to reopen in late July.  This is in a rural town in a county that doesn't even have a documented case, yet. 

[Bench Racer]

  I'm not much of an alarmist, but we in the USA have a tendency to think we can control things and "it won't happen to me".  This doesn't work that way. 

 

I think June will be "lucky". 

Ditto!!! 

 

I believe when the curve flattens below some point we will return to our past normal.

 

The news broadcast is sad because the Gen Z and Millennial believe their above and beyond. 

[Tom Hampton]

Ditto!!! 
 
I believe when the curve flattens below some point we will return to our past normal.
 
The news broadcast is sad because the Gen Z and Millennial believe their above and beyond.

I don't think that's some new trait attributable specifically to these new generations.  The young have always felt more than a little bit invincible.  Hell, I still am---my recent surgery is just more proof of that fact. 

[Tom Sager]

At the moment the USA is experiencing a ~10 fold increase in total cases every 8 days (and most every other statistic).  Until that flattens out and goes the other way....no one is doing anything.   We haven't really gone into much of a lockdown mode in many places, yet.  My office is only now going to a "voluntary" work from home plan---with a 25% participation rate.  I'm not much of an alarmist, but we in the USA have a tendancy to think we can control things and "it won't happen to me".  This doesn't work that way. 

 

I think June will be "lucky". 

 

My cardiac rehab place just called to cancel my appointments---because they closed until further notice.  They are hoping to reopen in late July.  This is in a rural town in a county that doesn't even have a documented case, yet. 

Make sure you are taking care of yourself Tom.  Lay low.

 

Work-wise we are operating normally the 12 of us here.  Wiping down touch areas 3 times a day, hand washing constantly and in this environment we aren't all working on top of each other.  Everyone has some space which is good and not a sniffle or cough among us.  Hopefully that continues. 

 

Agree that June might be the soonest we race again.  Last year while visiting Autobahn I spent some time talking to Jody Lift Havoc Motorsports who has a Formula Mazda shop on the premises.  He offered 1 day FM rentals for $500/day if I can put together a group for a track day, non-competition.  I've always wanted to get into a formula car and that might be an opportunity before racing resumes.  Low cost, low risk and 1 day.  If anyone around Chicago has any interest let me know.  I plan to contact him before the end of this month. 

 

Everyone stay healthy for now. 

[Andy Mitchell]

Canada (or at least my end of it) has gone crazy with the lock down. We have 12 cases in a province of about a million, I'm a university prof that isn't supposed to even walk on the campus I teach at any more. Next door neighbor province just declared a state of emergency over pretty much the same ratio of infection. I'm thinking racing will resume mid-summer or fall at the earliest. Hope I'm wrong, tho'...  

[FTodaro]

At the moment the USA is experiencing a ~10 fold increase in total cases every 8 days (and most every other statistic).  Until that flattens out and goes the other way....no one is doing anything.   We haven't really gone into much of a lockdown mode in many places, yet.  My office is only now going to a "voluntary" work from home plan---with a 25% participation rate.  I'm not much of an alarmist, but we in the USA have a tendancy to think we can control things and "it won't happen to me".  This doesn't work that way. 

 

I think June will be "lucky". 

 

 

Until the testing gets current we will not really understand the rate of increase or slowing. We are still testing the backlog of who was infected but not yet tested. Once we get on top of the testing we can do better at predicting the curve up or down. Hopefully in a few weeks from now. I know our Gov. in Ohio is close to an order of shelter in place. I would be ok with it if it gets us over the hump faster. It saddens me to watch the news and see all those spring break kids out their drinking their ass off while most of us are at home washing our hands.

[Steve Scheifler]

Define “over the hump”, what does it look like?

[manthony121]

Define “over the hump”, what does it look like?

It's like that graph of tire grip vs slip angle.  Push slip angle a little too far, and grip falls off.  Except "number of new infections" on the Y axis, and "time" on the X axis.

[Bench Racer]

Over the hump as I've viewed the curve is when there is an "x" axis horizontal line which represents health care capacity and the maximum number of cases is below said line.

 

https://www.weforum....tion-trajectory

 

Scroll down to "Flattening The COVID-19 Curve"

[Steve Scheifler]

Yeah, I’ve seen the pretty graphs since they first came out, I’m not living in a cave (though that’s actually a very good idea!) I figure that was the reference but it wasn’t necessarily what Frank had in mind, so I asked rather than assume. Unfortunately those all likely misrepresent capacity, by a lot in some places, the line should probably be somewhere in the middle of the flatter hump. But that’s too scary for the consumer edition.

Let me ask a second question: Once you successfully flatten the ramp up and peak, what dictates when it starts back down? With that in mind, adjust the x axis with a realistic timeline and redraw the curve. What do you get?

There are still several ways this can go, but they are not being well explained to the public. We’re still in the rally-‘round-the-flag stage, accepting extreme short-term pain to get it over quickly. There seems to be a huge gap in that logic.

[Tom Hampton]

Yeah.  The general public does NOT understand exponentials and logarithms.  One week ago, we (USA) had 6 deaths per day.  Yesterday, 57.  two weeks ago, the USA had 100 total cases, a week ago? 1000 total cases, this week?  10,000 total cases...two weeks from now, if that trend continues, that means 1,000,000 cases.  

 

The logarithmic graph for Italy appears to be asymptotically approaching 200,000 cases---where one might say they've likely gotten "over the hump"...IE, "new resolved cases" exceeds "new active cases" per day.  That would be ~3,000 cases per 1M population.  The same penetration in the USA would imply 1.1M cases.  At present the USA shows no evidence of any asymptotic behavior on either the linear nor the logarithmic graphs for Total Cases or Deaths.  We don't even have any appreciable number of recoveries, yet (125 / 16,000). 

 

Hopefully, everyone understands that our current controls are no where near those in Italy. 

[Steve Scheifler]

On your points Tom, to be fair, reported cases of infection are on a much steeper slope than actual infections because of the massive shortage and backlog in testing. With a little effort and questioning of those infected they could somewhat extrapolate backwards but the raw numbers are deceptive. Even deaths may not be quite accurate, though probably close enough.

But my focus remains on what the future x months look like from 30,000 feet. How will this play out and on exactly what assumptions are those possibilities based? It seems to me that we are being intentionally kept in the dark or perhaps more accurately, being subtly allowed to self-deceive. Obviously I have my own ideas.

[Tom Hampton]

There's two sides to the testing backlog coin---There's also the number of unreported cases to consider.  Besides, our testing improved significantly two weeks ago.  Since that time, our testing has exceeded the number of new cases every day, and we have tested ~3x the number of total cases (50k tests, 16k cases).  Sure we can test more, and if we test more we will undoubtedly find more.  Even with the flu it is generally assumed that the number of unreported / untested infections is 7-10x the confirmed cases, annually. So, testing is ALWAYS a sampling of the population---the question is therefore, "is the sample representative of the population". 

 

Besides, these rates are quite inline with other countries which are well further into their battle with the infection.  There really is very little basis to infer that the rates in the US are SUBSTANTIALLY different than the available data suggests.  We aren't trying as hard as Italy is to contain it, so there is no reason to believe that we will ultimately be as (or more) successful at it. I'm not suggesting that they ARE successful...just that we won't do any better. 

 

Nevertheless, I agree that X is much longer than people think / are being led to believe...and if not then Y will be much taller.  It's clear the medical capacity line being drawn is wildly optomistic (even though it doesn't usually come with a numerical capacity)...still the line that gets draw mostly seems to be implying that 100% of our infrastructure is used for treating CV-19 patients, which is obviously not remotely possible.  In fact, I think that was ultimately the point I was actually making----the situation is siginificantly worse than people think, and it will take longer to work through it all...even if we are successful in keeping it to a dull roar that our medical capacity can absorb. 

[Steve Scheifler]

In most places I gather that testing, and results, haven’t nearly caught up with cases of suspected/symptomatic infection. Experts seem to want enough random testing to determine the true overall infection rate, which of course we never have for the flu. And they openly fear what they might learn. If I flip that around, the best case scenario right now is to learn that staggering numbers of people have been infected, many already past it, and hoards of others so mild that they have continued on unconcerned. That would mean we are well in our way towards the only real end to this, herd immunity, or what call community immunity.

Until we get to at least 70%, some say 80% immunity we can’t relax. As it stands, if all these extreme measures “succeed” far beyond expectations, the development of immunity also halts. If you throw a victory party and just one person sneaks in carrying the virus, we start this all over again. Point being, although flattening the curve is intended ONLY to reduce pressure on the healthcare system, it is being broadly misinterpreted by many as some sort of end goal that will release us from our shackles in a couple months. I don’t see the math to support that. Until a vaccine is ready and widely distributed, the slower the infection rate the slower the immunity rate, period. And the latter is the ONLY thing determining the real end, short of drug treatments so good and plentiful that we gladly risk the virus and take the cure so we can get on with life.

So what’s my point? I’m highly skeptical of claims that S. Korea and others are out of the woods already. Unless a large majority are immune, then their success is good only as long as they maintain strict control, else it must flare up again. Although, S. Korea is comparatively small and has the resources and control to respond quickly in real time so they are in a much better position to now regulate the rate of infection (immunity) to an acceptable level (whatever they deem that to be) than we ever will.

It’s time for some honest analysis/modeling of the most likely scenarios, not only of infections and death but alongside similar graphs depicting the resulting economic impacts, both in the big picture and by socioeconomic status etc., followed by the costs and impact of then rectifying some of the less acceptable inequities found on the first pass. Everything has a price, I’m asking for it to be disclosed.

[Steve Scheifler]

The magic bullet post-infection treatment may actually be at hand. Though Trump was heavily (justifiably) criticized for jumping the gun with his enthusiasm for malaria drug Chloroquine yesterday, there are reports flying around today of near 100% success rates in two other studies. That would lower death rates and shorten hospital stays, possibly eliminating many. Suddenly this would look entirely manageable with a foreseeable end to the complete economic shutdown.

[MPR22]

In most places I gather that testing, and results, haven’t nearly caught up with cases of suspected/symptomatic infection. Experts seem to want enough random testing to determine the true overall infection rate, which of course we never have for the flu. And they openly fear what they might learn. If I flip that around, the best case scenario right now is to learn that staggering numbers of people have been infected, many already past it, and hoards of others so mild that they have continued on unconcerned. That would mean we are well in our way towards the only real end to this, herd immunity, or what call community immunity.

Until we get to at least 70%, some say 80% immunity we can’t relax. As it stands, if all these extreme measures “succeed” far beyond expectations, the development of immunity also halts. If you throw a victory party and just one person sneaks in carrying the virus, we start this all over again. Point being, although flattening the curve is intended ONLY to reduce pressure on the healthcare system, it is being broadly misinterpreted by many as some sort of end goal that will release us from our shackles in a couple months. I don’t see the math to support that. Until a vaccine is ready and widely distributed, the slower the infection rate the slower the immunity rate, period. And the latter is the ONLY thing determining the real end, short of drug treatments so good and plentiful that we gladly risk the virus and take the cure so we can get on with life.

So what’s my point? I’m highly skeptical of claims that S. Korea and others are out of the woods already. Unless a large majority are immune, then their success is good only as long as they maintain strict control, else it must flare up again. Although, S. Korea is comparatively small and has the resources and control to respond quickly in real time so they are in a much better position to now regulate the rate of infection (immunity) to an acceptable level (whatever they deem that to be) than we ever will.

It’s time for some honest analysis/modeling of the most likely scenarios, not only of infections and death but alongside similar graphs depicting the resulting economic impacts, both in the big picture and by socioeconomic status etc., followed by the costs and impact of then rectifying some of the less acceptable inequities found on the first pass. Everything has a price, I’m asking for it to be disclosed.

In the mean time while we are busy trying to flatten the curve and keep the load off the healthcare facilities, while we are driving the economy off a cliff that will kill many more than the 3.3 million that would die if there was a 50% infection rate and 2% mortality.  It seems silly to me that we can model every fudging scenario for weather systems but can't model the effects of a pandemic on the populace and the economy.  The politicians and bureaucrats didn't want to tell us that we were fucked because they had no plan and now they are busy trying to make it look like they have a plan.