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COVID 19 - impact on racing

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#41
Carl

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Steve,

 

That's seems like a helpful way to speed up the process.  



#42
MPR22

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Carl,
It’s being reported that an antibody test will soon be available to identify people, like your family, who may already be immune. That would get some people moving again and random testing will help to gauge the level of community immunity.

I wonder how expensive and wide used the antibody test will be. It seems like the only real test for " herd immunity". 


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#43
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I wonder how expensive and wide used the antibody test will be. It seems like the only real test for " herd immunity". 

Michael, not to worry, your governor of the great state of Texas is ready for the state to open up to normal today.

 

WI just locked down (stay home other than essential business) for a minimum of another 30 days.


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#44
Steve Scheifler

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Michael, not to worry, your governor of the great state of Texas is ready for the state to open up to normal today.

WI just locked down (stay home other than essential business) for a minimum of another 30 days.


Actually, Harris county which includes Houston has issued stay at home order starting midnight.
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#45
Steve Scheifler

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I wonder how expensive and wide used the antibody test will be. It seems like the only real test for " herd immunity".


Yeah, that’s what I meant by community immunity, which I started using in place of herd both because it’s catchier and I think more accurately descriptive. I usually make that connection explicitly as I probably did somewhere above, else it isn’t helpful. Even with a fast easy test it’s hard to imagine testing a high percentage of a large metro area for an actual number unless individuals are trusted to DIY and report, but good random testing should reveal roughly where things stand and whether a large number of people have had a stealth infection and are already immune. The only real end to this is herd/community immunity and a vaccine could be far off.
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#46
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Actually, Harris county which includes Houston has issued stay at home order starting midnight.

I'm sorry it is the Lt. Governor,

 

https://www.msn.com/...DvoL?li=BBnb7Kz


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#47
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Actually, Harris county which includes Houston has issued stay at home order starting midnight.

We are on lock down here in Memphis as well


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#48
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We are locked down in Michigan as well.  Although I do see a lot open and about. 


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#49
Tom Hampton

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We are on "lockdown" in my employer's county (Hunt), dallas county, denton county, and Tarant country (Ft Worth...or will be soon).  My county of residence, Collin County, issued a "stay at home" order....but, said EVERYONE should still go to work: specifically, "ALL JOBS ARE ESSENTIAL."  Fortunately, all of the member cities have passed their own stay-at-home orders...so, its largely a distinction without a difference. 

 

That said, I'm in the Defence Industral Base as identified by the Dept. of Homeland Security.  So, I have my hall-pass letter to allow me safe passage.  :-\   My employer has allowed about 50% of the office-work staff to work from home---about 2/3rds of my team is WFH.  But, all manufacturing and management are required to come into the office every day...though some departments have split into shifts. 

 

Yesterday the roads were full of cars---and most shops were open.  I guess we will see how / if it changes over the next 48 hours as the straggling cities and counties orders go into effect. 

 

Given how slowly and inneffectively we have reacted...I just don't see how this is going to end well.  By the time we test "enough" to know the herd/community is NOT immune there won't be many options left. 


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#50
Steve Scheifler

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It’s extremely unlikely that there is anywhere near herd immunity yet, but the worse they do at isolation the faster it will ramp up (the glass half full view). But unless hospitalization rate is actually a small fraction of one percent, either it will take a very long time or hospitals will be buried, possibly both. But we learn a lot with random testing.
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#51
Tom Hampton

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but the worse they do at isolation the faster it will ramp up (the glass half full view).

 

Not sure that's a "glass half full" view.  It wont take long at all to swamp out medical services.

 

Currently in the US, 2% (~1000) of active cases are serious/critical.  Worldwide that number is 4%.  Of course, that's based on the data available today.


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#52
Ron Alan

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Its been 2 weeks in CA of work from home(shelter in place)with only essential business open. Grocery stores are busy with most patrons being respectful of distance/space. My local chain(safeway)has put into place hours to allow those over 70 to shop alone(4 hrs per week). It is super quiet  on the roads compared to normal...every strip mall is a ghost town!

 

On the fun fact side...I never new I had so many children, dogs and young parents in my neighborhood! They are out in force walking or biking(finally)along with us over the hill types :)

 

The Medium.com article posted here is outstanding...Hammer and Dance! We aren't avoiding it!


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#53
Steve Scheifler

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Not sure that's a "glass half full" view. It wont take long at all to swamp out medical services.


Which is why it was stated tongue in cheek then followed by the reality of what it would require.
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#54
Tom Hampton

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Ah. I completely missed the sarcasm. Sorry.

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#55
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Its been 2 weeks in CA of work from home(shelter in place)with only essential business open. Grocery stores are busy with most patrons being respectful of distance/space. My local chain(safeway)has put into place hours to allow those over 70 to shop alone(4 hrs per week). It is super quiet  on the roads compared to normal...every strip mall is a ghost town! Same in the Milwaukee metro area.

 

On the fun fact side...I never new I had so many children, dogs and young parents in my neighborhood! They are out in force walking or biking(finally)along with us over the hill types :)   The world as we grew up and it's great to see

 

Viewed a todays WI case graph, days versus positive cases and it shows a hint of decrease in positive cases, BUT the graph does not show total case test per day, therefore???

 

EDIT:

Very interesting, no test kit/test time required.

 

https://www.msn.com/...Flcb?li=BBnb7Kz


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#56
LarryKing

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Its been 2 weeks in CA of work from home(shelter in place)with only essential business open.

 

I see California has declared cannabis stores "essential." To paraphrase "Ted", "Shit. It's COVID-19 I gotta get high."


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#57
Steve Scheifler

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Viewed a todays WI case graph, days versus positive cases and it shows a hint of decrease in positive cases, BUT the graph does not show total case test per day, therefore???

EDIT:
Very interesting, no test kit/test time required.

https://www.msn.com/...Flcb?li=BBnb7Kz


Amazing. Perhaps next they’ll wow us all with a study as to whether avoiding direct sunlight reduces the risk of sunburn. And my favorite, whether reducing speed on the highway increases MPG.

Sorry. There probably are people who need it spelled out.
Typical though, first they say “ atypical fever and symptoms — began dropping almost immediately after mandatory social distancing measures were implemented in some areas.” then later tell the truth, that it takes typically days or longer to produce a fever. Which means either the first was BS or the drop was for other reasons, like general awareness and caution before any formal mandates. But it makes a good story and will boost Kinsa’s revenue.
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#58
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For people who like to call BS, please follow through with the Kinsa data and report back. Commonly fever is listed as the first indicator of coronavirus. 

 

"Kinsa's data is available for public and scientific analysis and the company plans to submit it to a medical journal soon."


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#59
Tom Hampton

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Benchie-
 
The only thing I found on Kinsa's site is a study published back in January. 

https://www.kinsahealth.co/research/

 

I also went through the medrxiv site linked in the article but couldn't find anything that mentions Kinsa or appears to have anything to do with the news article.  So, maybe the study is out there somewhere....but, they didn't make it easy to find.  One might wonder "why"...If they really wanted us to read it, why didn't they link the actual article instead of the top level link to the hosting site (assuming the article DOES actually exist somewhere).  Its easy to put up a link in a news article that they KNOW no one will follow. 

 

One might also wonder "why the CDC has ignored requests to engage with Kinsa."---Conspiracy theories, notwithstanding, maybe the CDC knows something we don't about Kinsa. 

 

 


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#60
Tom Hampton

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I did find this study which looks interesting...

http://medrxiv.org/c....03.22.20041079

need more time to digest it.

-tch
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