66 replies to this topic

[Steve Scheifler]

I’m pretty confident that a lot of models are being run on the pandemic and the economy, by the government and various institutions and universities, they just aren’t being shared. In fact organizations like GPHIN are using this to fine-tune the models they’ve been playing with for years. Speaking of whom, 17 years after their greatest triumph, according to them making it possible to stop SARS before it got rolling, is this their biggest failure? Or did they alert the WHO even before China admitted a problem? I can’t find any record of them sniffing this out.

[MPR22]

I’m pretty confident that a lot of models are being run on the pandemic and the economy, by the government and various institutions and universities, they just aren’t being shared. In fact organizations like GPHIN are using this to fine-tune the models they’ve been playing with for years. Speaking of whom, 17 years after their greatest triumph, according to them making it possible to stop SARS before it got rolling, is this their biggest failure? Or did they alert the WHO even before China admitted a problem? I can’t find any record of them sniffing this out.

As the old saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Especially when you have no cure.

[FTodaro]

I hope that they can come up with a treatment or that one of these drugs that we already have would be helpful, because its going to be a long time before we have a proven vaccine. If we had a treatment that would work for the elderly and those at risk we could get on our merry way as far as the economy is concerned. If we can get jump started soon, our problems will not be the health crisis its going to be another financial crisis. We need to avoid the third ring of the the three ring circus.  Ring one is the demand shock, ring two is the supply shock, ring three is the financial crisis of the banking and market system collapsing because of the imbalances in the system. The Fed is throwing everything they have to prop up liquidity in the banking system, the treasury market and the money market, where most of us have cash money parked.

Do you remember when the money market temporarily broke the buck in the financial crisis. That was not pretty. Banks are in a better place today thank god for Dodd Frank. but sadly corporate America has not been smart. All that cheap money has led corporations to borrow money they did not need to buy back stocks and other projects that may have not been wise. That is why we will be bailing out the air lines because the have had no such thing as a rainy day fund. 

What we don't know yet will be the fall out from this unprecedented outlay of cash and further national debt. There will come a day soon where wall street will look at the Debt to GDP ratio and realize we are over our head and can never pay it back. The music will stop and there will be no chairs left.

It would be nice if our governing officials would once again consider being budget minded.

I was opposed to the tax cut because it should have followed accepted accounting principals that showed that a cut would be had with a balanced budget. Instead we were running a trillion dollar deficit while we were at full employment.  That just made no sense to me. 

My view of the higher tax rate in the US is this, when you live in a high rent district with good community services you have to expect to pay higher taxes for those services. So If you want low budget, move to a low budget country.

Lastly. my rant is almost over, all of this may actually be good for the US. We are now understanding that outsourcing everything to other countries based on price may not be smart. I hope that companies will decide that it is smart to keep manufacturing of drugs, medical supplies and other essential services in the US is a good thing even if its more expensive, so at least we have some control over the product. Its sad that much of our drugs and medical supplies are not made in the US. 

I hope everyone stays safe and healthy. Its a stressful time. Hopefully we will be back to racing soon.

[38bfast]

I am trying to stay optimistic. The new drugs they are going to implement sound encouraging. If they work we will be way better off. China is showing their curve flatten. If this is shorter rather then longer the economy will bounce back. If we have a complete lock down we can endure as long as it doesn't drag on. We can adapt without TP. Trying to do my part in distancing. Zero contact with outside anything today.  Just took my mail out of the mail box with pliers. The mail is now in quarantine for 2 days. 

 

Frank I hope you're right that we will stop outsourcing and start insourcing. Just afraid that once this all blows over the $ might be back to driving sourcing. I hate to say it but the government might have to step in to discourage the outsourcing and encourage keeping things domestic. I have never been a fan of outsourcing to other countries much less with China. 

 

When life turns sower I just go and watch Band of Brothers to put things back in prospective. That was an amazing generation. 

[Steve Scheifler]

Unfortunately, flatten, and shorter rather than longer, are in direct opposition if the long-term goal is safety through herd immunity.

I spent way too much time last night typing out on this damned phone what I think I understand about the options going forward, largely to organize my own mind and then share with family. I'll spare you the long version because it boils down really fast with simple math. Hoping to build up herd immunity naturally but at a manageable rate (as part of the goal for flattening the curve) isn't even remotely plausible. So it comes down to essentially a national shutdown as tight as possible with the two-pronged goal of stopping new infections cold while identifying any household with one or more occupants already infected. Because some mild but infectious cases could go undetected the lockdown probably needs to last over 30 days. If you go that far it would seem dumb to not try going a little longer by anyone it's missed at that point.

Then you come out of hiding with the realization that for most people the clock has simply been reset to early March and a single ember can reignite an entire city in a matter of days. So now "surveillance, reporting and contact tracing" becomes everything so any case or even suspected case is immediately quarantined along with all suspected contacts. If it gets away then that town or city goes back into lockdown for another month. And if it's already escaped that town then another, and another.

If people cooperate it might be enough to avoid waves of international lockdowns, but given the nature of this particular virus, and the nature of people, it seems very unlikely that we can avoid significant new outbreaks even if a first complete lockdown appears to succeed. I expect travel restrictions, particularly international, to remain a hot topic until/unless a vaccine provides sustained herd immunity.

Anyone see a better or more likely option?

[Steve Scheifler]

So if that’s the plan, and I don’t see signs of any other, why isn’t this being explained, honestly and clearly so that people fully understand what the best option really looks like? Why isn’t the media pressing the experts with questions deeper than “how long?” and keep pressing for more than “we can’t be sure”?

I’d really like to blame Twitter but it’s just a symptom and now an enabler. I think it goes back to a quote first attributed to Ronald Reagan: If you’re explaining, you’re losing. So of course it actually goes back further than that, but I’d submit it has continued to get worse.

I could rant on that at length, already have actually, but I'll spare you by cutting it out because if I’m explaining...

[Cnj]

In everything I have read, I think Tomas projections are the most likely.  I’m loosely building my business response around his models.

 

 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

In this article he also has links to the Imperial College report which is worth reading as really shows how the disease spreads - but this is the doomsday report.  I read it late at night and paid the price for lack of sleep that night.  

 

If you are a data geek, then link to the calculator and play.

[FTodaro]

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine issued an order starting Monday that only essential work serviced should work and all others close. The problem is that the list of what is essential services if far to large. It includes legal services you see my point. 

I am in the camp that we would be far better off with a national and international shut down. It really does not do much good if Ohio is in a lock down if you will and PA, Indiana and Ky are not. Likewise it does not help if a handful of Countries are restricting travel and Mexico and many others are not. No coordination, states wide or globally.

I understand that this will not solve the problem but what it may do is allow the build up of Medical supplies, gowns, masks, and tests so when the second wave hits we can better isolate the infected persons and protect the health care providers who have to take care of them.

Right now we are not prepared to confront this on testing or equipment so slowing it down is the only option until we are better prepared.

It will be interesting to see just how long this drags out.

[gerglmuff2]

two people i know are "presumed with Covid19" diagnosed by doctors, because of lack of testing. the numbers arn't even close, in our state they are not testing anyone unless they are so bad they need to be hospitalized, or a healthcare worker. testing is in that short of supply. we had months to prepare for this....

 

[Steve Scheifler]

In everything I have read, I think Tomas projections are the most likely. I’m loosely building my business response around his models.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

In this article he also has links to the Imperial College report which is worth reading as really shows how the disease spreads - but this is the doomsday report. I read it late at night and paid the price for lack of sleep that night.

If you are a data geek, then link to the calculator and play.

Thanks very much for the link! I doubt I would have found it anytime soon, which is particularly unfortunate, but I will begin sharing. It’s too long for most to read fully, but right now more have extra time, so maybe. I could nitpick some comparisons that maybe don’t hold well or an occasional detail that doesn’t ring true, and as he acknowledges some of the most critical factors aren’t well known due to limited data so much of it could be scaled quite high, or low. But I think the premise and conclusions largely hold regardless and he does explain why their model differs in a critical way from the Imperial College report that gets much deserved credit for kicking a bunch of countries off their ass and into action. Good stuff indeed. Hopefully I’ll get to play with the calculator and see where I’d guess things fall.

[MPR22]

I think the hammer and dance are the only real option. 30 days, lockdown. It’s spreading way faster than data can show because of lack of testing. I have heard this scenario happen at least 3 times in last few days. Patient has beginning symptoms of virus, goes to clinic, no test just send patient home with z-pack claiming sinus infection or nothing claiming it’s just allergies. Next day patient has fever of 103, that number is very specific, it is the common symptom across most cases. Now those people had been walking around spreading the virus. Lock them down now and then these same people aren’t walking virus factories. Government has to act fast and decisively, they are trying this slow drip method which is only going to fail. Listening to some media buying into this hammer and dance theory is starting to take hold. Hopefully they commit now not next week.

[Steve Scheifler]

Unfortunately, even buying a little time with the lockdown, we have nothing like the resources necessary for the dance. There’s a lot of effort now to manufacture masks and other supplies but unless one of the rapid-turnaround tests proves reliable I don’t see how we can even come close to the level of testing required, and even with fast testing we need enormous numbers of people to carry them out, do contact tracing and the rest. A month from now it may become more of a trained manpower issue than anything else. This isn’t S. Korea or China, let alone Singapore or Hong Kong. Direct comparisons are flawed but that doesn’t mean we can’t take lessons from them. The first we already failed, taking this seriously soon enough to at least quietly muster the resources and strategy for a major event. A lot of the current shortages could have been avoided completely.

[38bfast]

All the actions taken to this point around the world have been 2-3 weeks late. The cats out of the bag and its almost impossible to get the cat back in if he doesn't want to go. Now it's a balance of how many will die by virus and how many will die do to the lack of income. Sure hope the drugs they are testing provide hope. 

[gerglmuff2]

All the actions taken to this point around the world have been 2-3 weeks late. The cats out of the bag and its almost impossible to get the cat back in if he doesn't want to go. Now it's a balance of how many will die by virus and how many will die do to the lack of income. Sure hope the drugs they are testing provide hope. 

 

given the ~2 month warning we were given, we could have easily been testing at airports and automatically quarantining folks and basically never had an actual out of control situation here. 

we chose not to. 

also during that time we could have been building up supplies, masks, chemicals, developing tests, and building up inventory. we also could have activated more factories to building ventilators and other equipment to increase hospital capacity. 

we chose not to. 

we could have briefed state officials and business leaders, and come up with contingency plans, models, and gamed out solutions and educated the public about what was coming. 

we chose not to. 

we could have passed legislation to insure free testing, paid sick time etc etc etc and even been working on bailouts for key industries ahead of time

we chose not to. 

 

[Steve Scheifler]

I don’t know that we could have easily been testing at airports early enough to stave it off, in fact I’m pretty sure we could not at all let alone easily. None of the early tests returned results quickly enough, still don’t really. The fact that people are contagious without symptoms was not understood. Short of completely closing the doors, or figuring out how to quarantine all arrivals until tests we couldn’t produce enough of returned results or until clear based on time, it couldn’t be stopped from getting here. Given the special nature of this one it doesn’t take but a few to set, or reset, the country ablaze. That’s still our problem going forward.

You’ve listed plenty of legitimate shortcomings, don’t make the mistake of giving people cause to discredit all of them by including, even leading with, something easily disputed.

[Steve Scheifler]

BTW, it appears that Hong Kong, sometimes referenced as an example of getting it right, is now the first to completely blow it. Exactly what I’ve been talking about, in the absence of a clearly communicated longer term plan, once the spread had been nearly stopped, they relaxed. Now they are already beating down the next wave. Who in their right mind wouldn’t recognize that without immunity or 100% eradication, simply dropping the spread to near zero through isolation is not permission to resume normal life? Hero to zero. Until/unless we are prepared for serious testing and tracing, we are likely to do exactly the same thing.

[Steve Scheifler]

Amazing, RIGHT NOW Trump is talking about doing exactly the same thing.

Get ready for a roller coaster.

[Carl]

A slightly different perspective on the time frame of this is that I know 12 people (including my wife and me) that most likely had covid-19 in early February.  Two of those went to the hospital for dehydration and one ended up with pneumonia.  Of course, there was no testing or even general awareness of the problem then, so couldn't/can't confirm.  Most of those people had their annual flu shots.  Along similar lines, my 35 year old daughter probably has it now, just today confirmed to have led to pneumonia stage and there are no test kits available where she lives in Bend, OR to know for sure.   

 

Just something to keep in mind (which of course many people are already doing) while following the data.

 

Stay healthy.

 

Carl

[FTodaro]

Olympics, hard to believe they are still on the fence. Just move it till next year and move on.

[Steve Scheifler]

Carl,
It’s being reported that an antibody test will soon be available to identify people, like your family, who may already be immune. That would get some people moving again and random testing will help to gauge the level of community immunity.